Amarillo bigger than Lubbock

[petiepanzer]

horribilis said:

Las Vegas has a net increase of 7000 people a month, or 84000 people a year. So, basically, it takes Las Vegas a little more than a year to accomplish what it takes Amarillo 60 years to accomplish.

What goes up must come down, take a look at what is happening there now. The Las Vegas economy has followed a boom and bust cycle over the last decade, and that is what others have said in this thread; slow and steady and sustainable is much preferable to volatility with wild swings in both directions.

What? A Boom and Bust Cycle? Please show me one time in the last ten years that Las Vegas has been in a bust. They certainly are not in a bust right now. They have 3 big projects, the new stadium/arena complex downtown for 9 Billion, the City Center project from MGM/Mirage for 7 billion, and Trump's new plaza replica where the Frontier currently stands for 5 billion, all scheduled to begin next year. This is added to a current construction tab on the strip of $55 billion and doesn't even include the rest of the town. Amarillo's never even had half a billion total in construction, even in their best year. If Las Vegas is experiencing a bust, it has made absolutely no difference in the migration flow and they still have a net increase of 7000 people a month, wiht lots of jobs paying very well. Southwest Airlines is getting ready to move at least part of their operations to Las Vegas and this is going to add an additional 6-7000 jobs to the city, not to mention all the new jobs that come from the big projects taking place on the strip. The people with jobs there make money hand over fist and in a manner most people in Amarillo could never comprehend. thingytail waitresses at the nicer casinos average between 100-150k a year when tips are factored in. The dealers at these places usually make around 85K, most of the guys in the valet earn up to 70k parking cars for a living, neighborhood bartenders make around the same amount and even bus boys out there earn $40K a year. More people are visiting Las Vegas than ever before, and 37 million people are going to fly through McCarran this year, up 2 million from Last Year. Every weekend, the hotels on the strip are packed full with tourists leaving their hard earned money behind. They have a nice, low tax base there with no state income tax and lower property taxes and sales tax than there is here in the state of Texas. When I had my house out there, the property taxes on a house worth about $300k were a little over $1000 and my insurance policy was around $500 a year. In Amarillo, I pay over $3000 on a house that is worth about 150k and an insurance policy that costs more than $1000 a year. If that's a bust cycle, how do we get Amarillo's economy to bust the same way?

[petiepanzer]

The housing market is just one aspect of an economy. What you are failing to take into consideration is that Las Vegas had one of the fastest RE appreciations in the country from 2003-2005. Even with what is currently taking place out there, home prices are still about double what they were in 2000.

The job market is still firing on all cylinders out there and the city is still seeing a net increase of 7000 people a month. This is a minor hiccup for a town like Vegas and is actually an excellent time to consider purchasing property there. As long as people continue earning a ton of money there, that town is going to continue to grow. People are going to keep moving there for financial reasons and because it is a very fun, hip town in which to live. The short term is irrelevent compared to the long term.

Anyhow, I think we are getting a little off topic here. The subject is Amarillo and its growth rate, not the Las Vegas housing market. Now, I'm not saying Amarillo should attempt to try to match LV's growth rate. God knows that's not possible. Amarillo should at least attempt to have a growth rate that is at least as rapid as the national average, if not a little more. At the present rate, Amarillo is growing at a rate of about 100 people a month. If they could increase that number to 200-300 people a month, it would give Amarillo a nice boost without being too overwhelming for the town.

[horribilis]

"Bust" is a relative term. In over heated real estate markets, "bust" can mean no longer flipping a house in a few short weeks with a $20,000 bump each time. The wildly speculative fever in the residential real estate market is what I was referring to.

Again, the point is there is a lot to be said for Amarillo's economy growing according to underlying forces that can be sustained over time. Ther eis an adverse effect on communities that go through boom and bust cycles.

I moved here a few years ago, and every conversation I have ever had with businessmen (and women) is that Amarillo has always been slow and steady.

[sj]

Las Vegas has one of the largest suicide rates in the Nation....

7 come 11.....

[petiepanzer]

horribilis said:

"Bust" is a relative term. In over heated real estate markets, "bust" can mean no longer flipping a house in a few short weeks with a $20,000 bump each time. The wildly speculative fever in the residential real estate market is what I was referring to.

Again, the point is there is a lot to be said for Amarillo's economy growing according to underlying forces that can be sustained over time. Ther eis an adverse effect on communities that go through boom and bust cycles.

I moved here a few years ago, and every conversation I have ever had with businessmen (and women) is that Amarillo has always been slow and steady.

That house flipping phase in Las Vegas really only lasted for a few years, from 2002-2005. That has never been anything but a small aspect of the economy out there, anyhow, but it was nice while it lasted. The lady that lived next door to me originally bought her house in 1995 for about $95,000. In January 2003, she put her house on the market for $229,000 and somebody came in and offered her asking price for it within an hour of the listing hitting the MLS. They didn't even have time to put a sign in her yard. She accepted the offer, but several other people came in within the next few days and offered her up to 245K for the house, but she stayed true to her word and sold it for the agreed upon price. Now, these people hung on to the house for a few months, mad a few minor improvements, and sold it in July of that year for 300,000. Those homes were a little smaller, but they were in the nicest part of town, so the price went up to around $350K, but have now slid down to around the low 3's again. That's still considerably higher than the mid 130's price I put down there right around the millienium. The point is that there is a lot of opportunity in a place like Las Vegas and I don't think you can understand that unless you have lived in an environment like that. Personally, I think it is pretty cool that a young girl with no education can make more money than a lot of doctors and lawyers if she is hot. Also, there is just an atmosphere of achievement in a town like that and people are very financially motivated in a place like that. I'll probably go back there after I settle things up in Amarillo, but that could take another 2-5 years. It's really tough to live in a place like the Texas Panhandle after being in a high energy environment like that.

Now, the problem with the slow and steady growth rate is that doing so causes an area to lose clout, potential new jobs, and political influence. Every few years, this area gets gerrymandered into an ever increasingly large area for political representation. That means that the Texas panhandle keeps losing representation in places like Austin and Washington. That means places like the Panhandle are going to keep getting lumped in with places like MidlandOdessa, which has a completely different economy and problems that are uniquely different than the problems in this part of West Texas. I hate to keep going back to Las Vegas, but the Clark County School District is scheduled to open 11 new schools out there this fall. Can anyone remember the last 11 schools that were opened in the AISD and the years they were opened? Did you know that the De Zavala middle school was the first new middle school they opened in the AISD since Bonham opened back in 1967? They opened Amarillo High back in 1976 but that was for a replacement school that burned down in 1972. Before that, it was Caprock in 1963. When I was in school, all of the Amarillo schools were 5A. Since then, they have had to downgrade PD and Caprock to 4A, along with Plainview. Randall was supposed to end up becoming a 5A school at any time, but here we are 20 years after it first opened and it is still a 4A school. We have also seen a lot of other area schools that have had to downgrade to other lower divisions over the years. Canyon and Borger immediately come to mind, but there are many others. The fact that have to keep downgrading the schools in this area should be a pretty clear indication to people that not all is well on the High Plains and some proactive steps should be taken to insure that the Texas Panhandle doesn't continue this slide toword the path of becoming an economic non-factor.

[habiba]

To think I spend all thoes years slaughtering cows at IBP when I could have moved to Las Vegas and pranced around a casino in short skirt making $150,000 just to serve drink. I guess I missed my big break in life.

My point to this post is that Amarillo is been smaller than Lubbock for very long time. Our steady growth will put us ahead of our neighbor to the South in about 30 year. I think it about time. Other than for university I could never figure out why anyone would want to go to Lubbock when Amarillo is much nicer and better. Hopefully we can pick up the pace a little with more good jobs, but we all know we will never be the next Las Vegas and do not want to be.

[coolarrow]

habiba said:

To think I spend all thoes years slaughtering cows at IBP when I could have moved to Las Vegas and pranced around a casino in short skirt making $150,000 just to serve drink. I guess I missed my big break in life.

My point to this post is that Amarillo is been smaller than Lubbock for very long time. Our steady growth will put us ahead of our neighbor to the South in about 30 year. I think it about time. Other than for university I could never figure out why anyone would want to go to Lubbock when Amarillo is much nicer and better. Hopefully we can pick up the pace a little with more good jobs, but we all know we will never be the next Las Vegas and do not want to be.

blah blah blah...Amarillo is trash, just like our neighbor to the south.

[phantom]

habiba, what do you have against Lubbock? I can't see that it is any worse than Amarillo.

[mustakister]

Petie: The fact that you are discussing Amarillo and Las Vegas in the same sentence is utterly preposterous. LV is an international tourist destination with a rich, storied history and sustained tourism business development that is unmatched in the US. Amarillo is one of many, many medium sized cities and shares almost nothing with Sin City. In fact, if we took a poll for "city most unlike LV," Amarillo might just win.

If you're bored here, then perhaps you do need to move on sooner rather than later. As for your assertion that Amarillo is going nowhere fast... that is obviously a concern for those of us who plan to stick it out for the long term.

[sj]

Amarillo vs Lubbock....some of us don't give a sh*t....... ;D

[phantom]

SJ (o)(o)

[petiepanzer]

mustakister said:

Petie: The fact that you are discussing Amarillo and Las Vegas in the same sentence is utterly preposterous. LV is an international tourist destination with a rich, storied history and sustained tourism business development that is unmatched in the US. Amarillo is one of many, many medium sized cities and shares almost nothing with Sin City. In fact, if we took a poll for "city most unlike LV," Amarillo might just win.

If you're bored here, then perhaps you do need to move on sooner rather than later. As for your assertion that Amarillo is going nowhere fast... that is obviously a concern for those of us who plan to stick it out for the long term.

I think you are missing the point here, but I suppose that should be expected. Take a look at what the population of the 2 towns was in the 1960 and see which one was bigger back then. Don't just look at Las Vegas, though. Let's look at several other cities such as Boise, Albuquerque, Austin, and Colorado Springs, which were all roughly close to the same size as Amarillo in 1960. Today, all of those cities are much larger than Amarillo and have much better economic prospects for the future than Amarillo. Those towns all had 2 things that Amarillo doesn't: a 4 year university and a desire to become bigger. Unfortunately in the Texas Panhandle, the people making the decisions are a bunch of uneducated, fat cowboy, Jet Rink, brokeback wannabe's that have no clue how to foster real economic growth. That AEDC is a pathetic joke and has suffered from incest for so long, they really should scrap the whole thing. Did you know that when I graduated from H.S., Amarillo was the 97th largest MSA in the United States? That was probably around the same time you graduated, MK? When I came back 13 years later, it had slipped to #134. That means 37 communities in the U.S. have managed to leap frog Amarillo in that period of time. Boy, they're really doing a heck of a job. I'm not saying Amarillo has to do everything like a town like Vegas, but it's pretty obvious to me that Amarillo could certainly learn a thing or 2 from these other communities that are experiencing real growth, not just residual growth.

On a personal note, I really appreciate your advice on telling me to move sooner than later. You are a genius and I'm surprised the think tanks haven't got hold of you yet. Unfortunately, it's not a possibility right now. My dad passed away suddenly and unexpectedly in 2005 and it soon became apparent that my mother would have to put a brother suffering from Down's syndrome and a 92 year old grandmother in a home if she didn't get help. Now, I guess most people would have just placed them in a home, but I think that's a pretty sleazy thing Americans do when they place their elderly and disabled family members into homes to avoid having to take care fo them. So, I came home to prevent them from having to spend their last few years warehoused in some type of care facility. Life's funny like that. Growing up here, I always despised Amarillo and couldn't wait to get the hell out. It's not that I wanted to come back, but I felt a sense of duty to do so. Neither one of them have long left on this earth and I can go elsewhere once they are gone. Until then, I have to make the best of living in Amarillo.